Dieser Internet-Auftritt kann nach dem Tod des Webmasters, Peter Strutynski, bis auf Weiteres nicht aktualisiert werden. Er steht jedoch weiterhin als Archiv mit Beiträgen aus den Jahren 1996 – 2015 zur Verfügung.

Peak Oil wird schon 2014 erreicht

Pro Jahr verringern sich die Erdölvorräte um 2,1 Prozent - Eine Analyse und Prognose kuwaitischer Experten

Die Erdölförderung könnte viel früher an ihre Grenzen stoßen als bisher von vielen angenommen. Nach Berechnungen kuwaitischer Forscher wird die weltweite Rohölproduktion schon im Jahr 2014 ihr Maximum (Peak Oil) erreichen. Bislang waren Wissenschaftler davon ausgegangen, daß die Steigerung der Fördermengen noch bis mindestens zum Jahr 2020 anhält. Die Wissenschaftler und Erdölingenieure Ibrahim Sami Nashawi und Adel Malallah von der Universität Kuwait und Mohammed Al-Bisharah von der Kuwait Oil Company stützen ihre Schätzung auf die Entwicklung der Fördermengen in 47 ölreichen Ländern. Aus den Daten leiten die Experten außerdem ab, daß die globalen Erdölreserven pro Jahr um durchschnittlich 2,1 Prozent aufgezehrt werden. Den Berechnungen zufolge wurden bis zum Jahr 2005 schon etwa 979 Milliarden der weltweit verfügbaren 2,14 Billionen Barrel (das Faß zu 159 Liter) verbraucht.
Die Analyse der Experten erschien im Fachblatt Energy & Fuels, das von der American Chemical Society herausgegeben wird.

Wir dokumentieren im Folgenden die von den Autoren stammende Zusammenfassung des Artikels.

Forecasting World Crude Oil Production Using Multicyclic Hubbert Model

by Ibrahim Sami Nashawi *, Adel Malallah * and Mohammed Al-Bisharah **

Abstract

The year 2008 has witnessed unprecedented fluctuations in the oil prices. During the first three-quarters, the oil price abruptly increased to $140/bbl, a level that has never been reached before; then because of the global economic crisis, the price dramatically plunged to less than $50/bbl by the end of the year losing more than 64% of the maximum price in less than three months period. The supply of crude oil to the international market oscillated to follow suite according to the law of supply and demand. This behavior affected oil production in all exporting countries. Nonetheless, the demand for crude oil in some developing countries, such as China and India, has increased in the past few years because of the rapid growth in the transportation sector in addition to the absence of viable economic alternatives for fossil fuel. The rapid growth in fuel demand has forced the policy makers worldwide to include uninterrupted crude oil supply as a vital priority in their economic and strategic planning.

Even though forecasting should be handled with extreme caution, it is always desirable to look ahead as far as possible to make an intellectual judgment on the future supplies of crude oil. Over the years, accurate prediction of oil production was confronted by fluctuating ecological, economical, and political factors, which imposed many restrictions on its exploration, transportation, and supply and demand. The objective of this study is to develop a forecasting model to predict world crude oil supply with better accuracy than the existing models. Even though our approach originates from Hubbert model, it overcomes the limitations and restrictions associated with the original Hubbert model. As opposed to Hubbert single-cycle model, our model has more than one cycle depending on the historical oil production trend and known oil reserves. The presented method is a viable tool to predict the peak oil production rate and time. The model is simple, accurate, and totally data driven, which allows a continuous updating once new data are available. The analysis of 47 major oil producing countries estimates the world’s ultimate crude oil reserve by 2140 BSTB and the remaining recoverable oil by 1161 BSTB. The world production is estimated to peak in 2014 at a rate of 79 MMSTB/D. OPEC has remaining reserve of 909 BSTB, which is about 78% of the world reserves. OPEC production is expected to peak in 2026 at a rate of 53 MMSTB/D. On the basis of 2005 world crude oil production and current recovery techniques, the world oil reserves are being depleted at an annual rate of 2.1%.

* Department of Petroleum Engineering, College of Engineering and Petroleum, Kuwait University, P.O. BOX 5969, Safat 13060, Kuwait

** Kuwait Oil Company, P.O. Box 9758, Ahmadi 61008, Kuwait

Source: Energy Fuels, 2010, 24 (3), pp 1788–1800; http://pubs.acs.org/doi/full/10.1021/ef901240p


Zurück zur Seite "Erdöl und andere Energieressourcen"

Zurück zur Homepage