Wachsende Unsicherheit lässt Arbeitslosigkeit weltweit wieder ansteigen
ILO-Generaldirektor Guy Ryder kritisiert unzureichende Gegenmaßnahmen der Politik - Pressemitteilung und Zusammenfassung der ILO-Studie (Executive Summary)
Die anhaltende Unsicherheit über die konjunkturelle Entwicklung und die unzureichenden Gegenmaßnahmen der Politik schwächen die Nachfrage und bremsen Investitionen und Neueinstellungen, warnt ILO-Generaldirektor Guy Ryder bei der Vorlage des Berichts der Internationalen Arbeitsorganisation über Globale Beschäftigungstrends. Im Folgenden dokumentieren wir die Presseinformation der ILO sowie - in englischer Sprache - die Zusammenfassung des Berichts.
Zum vollständigen Bericht (englisch) geht es hier: pdf-Datei, externer Link
Die weltweite Beschäftigungskrise hat sich nach einer gewissen Erholung zu Beginn des Jahrzehnts im Jahr 2012 wieder verschlimmert, so das Ergebnis eines Berichts über Globale Beschäftigungstrends, den die Internationale Arbeitsorganisation (ILO) im Vorfeld des Weltwirtschaftsforums in Davos vorgelegt hat. Im fünften Jahr nach Ausbruch der Finanzkrise stieg die Zahl der Arbeitslosen um weitere 4 Millionen auf mehr als 197 Millionen. Das entspricht einer Arbeitslosenquote von 5,9 Prozent. Hinzu kommen 39 Millionen Menschen, die sich vom Arbeitsmarkt zurückgezogen haben, weil sie keine Hoffnung auf Beschäftigung mehr sehen.
„Die Unsicherheit über die konjunkturelle Entwicklung und die unzureichenden Gegenmaßnahmen der Politik schwächen die Nachfrage und bremsen Investitionen und Neueinstellungen“, sagte ILO-Generaldirektor Guy Ryder bei der Vorstellung des Berichts in Genf. „Dies hat den Einbruch bei der Beschäftigung noch in die Länge gezogen. Die Schaffung neuer Arbeitsplätze ist rückläufig und die Dauer der Arbeitslosigkeit nimmt zu.“
Am schlimmsten von der Beschäftigungskrise betroffen sind junge Menschen. 2012 waren weltweit 73,9 Millionen Jugendliche ohne Arbeit – das entspricht einer Arbeitslosenrate von 12,6 Prozent – und ihre Zahl dürfte bis 2014 noch um eine halbe Million ansteigen. In Europa sind derzeit im Schnitt 12,7 Prozent der Jugendlichen weder beschäftigt noch in Ausbildung, fast zwei Prozentpunkte mehr als vor Ausbruch der Krise. Besonders besorgniserregend ist dabei, dass schon bei Jugendlichen die Langzeitarbeitslosigkeit zunimmt.
„Selbst wenn Arbeitsplätze neu entstehen, sind dafür oft Qualifikationen nötig, die die Arbeitssuchenden nicht haben“, erklärte Ryder. „Die Regierungen sollten daher ihre Qualifizierungs- und Umschulungsmaßnahmen verstärken, um die Lücke zwischen vorhandenen und geforderten Qualifikationen vor allem bei jungen Menschen zu schließen.“
Obwohl für dieses und das kommende Jahr noch mit einem leichten Wirtschaftswachstum zu rechnen ist, dürfte dieses nicht ausreichen, um die Lage auf den Arbeitsmärkten weltweit zu verbessern. Die ILO, eine Sonderorganisation der Vereinten Nationen, prognostiziert in ihrem aktuellen Bericht vielmehr einen Anstieg der Zahl der Arbeitssuchenden auf über 210 Millionen in den kommenden fünf Jahren.
Am deutlichsten ist der Anstieg der Arbeitslosigkeit in den Industrieländern. Die Krise in Europa zieht jedoch zunehmend auch andere Länder in Mitleidenschaft. Viele Beschäftigte weltweit sind dabei zwar nicht arbeitslos, leben aber trotzdem unterhalb oder nur noch ganz knapp über der Armutsgrenze.
„Es handelt sich um eine wahrhaft globale Krise, die nicht mit Maßnahmen allein auf nationaler Ebene zu bewältigen ist“, so Ryder weiter. „Die Unsicherheit – also die Ursache für die geringe Investitionsbereitschaft und die unzureichende Schaffung neuer Arbeitsplätze – wird nicht zurückgehen, wenn einzelne Staaten widersprüchliche Lösungsansätze verfolgen.“
Zur Verminderung der Unsicherheit empfiehlt die ILO eine Kombination dreier Maßnahmen: die Stützung der Nachfrage, gegebenenfalls durch öffentliche Investitionen, solange die private Investitionsbereitschaft schwach ist; Ausbildungs- und Umschulungsprogramme, um die Qualifikationslücke zu schließen; und eine Konzentration auf Maßnahmen zur Bekämpfung der Jugendarbeitslosigkeit. So hat bereits in mehreren Ländern die Erfahrung gezeigt, dass Beschäftigungsgarantien für Jugendliche zielführend und zugleich erschwinglich sind. „Die Kosten des Nichtstuns, wodurch die Langzeitarbeitslosigkeit wachsen würde und Jugendliche den Anschluss an den Arbeitsmarkt verlieren würden, wären jedenfalls viel höher“, sagte Ryder.
* ILO-Berlin, 22. Januar 2013; http://www.ilo.org/berlin
This Global Employment Trends report for 2013 is a special edition, warranted by the resurgence
of the crisis in 2012. The year 2011 saw a tapering off of the recovery, followed by a dip
in both growth and employment in 2012. Unemployment increased by a further 4 million
over the course of 2012.
The report examines the crisis in labour markets of both advanced economies and developing
economies. The epicentre of the crisis has been the advanced economies, accounting for
half of the total increase in unemployment of 28 million since the onset of the crisis. But the
pronounced double dip in the advanced economies has had significant spillovers into the labour
markets of developing economies as well. A quarter of the increase of 4 million in global unemployment
in 2012 has been in the advanced economies, while three quarters has been in
other regions, with marked effects in East Asia, South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa.
The report estimates the quantitative and qualitative indicators of global and regional
labour markets and discusses the macroeconomic factors affecting the labour markets in order
to explore possible policy responses. In estimating labour market indicators, the report uses four
key analytical techniques: 1) an ILO hiring uncertainty index indicating persisting weaknesses;
2) an extension of ILO estimates of the working poor to a full income decomposition of
employment to give income classes and their correlation to investment, growth and generation
of quality jobs; 3) a breakdown of growth factors which differentiates between within-sector
productivity growth, cross-sector productivity growth, and labour inputs, all of which have
significant implications for growth patterns in advanced and developing economies; and 4) a
Beveridge curve which allows some distinction between cyclical and structural factors affecting
the labour market.
In examining the impact of macroeconomic developments on labour markets, the report
looks at negative feedback loops from households, firms, capital markets and public budgets
that have weakened labour markets. It finds that macro imbalances have been passed on to the
labour market to a significant degree. Weakened by faltering aggregate demand, the labour
market has been further hit by fiscal austerity programmes in a number of countries, which
often involved direct cutbacks in employment and wages, directly impacting labour markets.
Far from the anti-cyclical response to the initial crisis in 2009 and 2010, the policy reaction
has been pro-cyclical in many cases in 2011 and 2012, leading to the double dip reported here.
The final chapter of this special edition urges a policy rethink in order to achieve a more
sustained recovery in 2013 and beyond.
Global labour markets are worsening again
In the fifth year after the outbreak of the global financial crisis, global growth has decelerated
and unemployment has started to increase again, leaving an accumulated total of some 197 million
people without a job in 2012. Moreover, some 39 million people have dropped out of the
labour market as job prospects proved unattainable, opening a 67 million global jobs gap since
2007. Despite a moderate pick-up in output growth expected for 2013–14, the unemployment
rate is set to increase again and the number of unemployed worldwide is projected to rise by
5.1 million in 2013, to more than 202 million in 2013 and by another 3 million in 2014. A
quarter of the increase of 4 million in global unemployment in 2012 has been in the advanced
economies, while three quarters has been in other regions, with marked effects in East Asia,
South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. Those regions that have managed to prevent a further
increase in unemployment often have experienced a worsening in job quality, as vulnerable
employment and the number of workers living below or very near the poverty line increased.
New recession conditions in Europe have been spilling over globally
Lower economic activity and job growth even in countries that had initially escaped the second
wave of the crisis constitutes a spillover effect of the weak growth in advanced economies in
2012, in particular recession conditions in Europe. So far, the main transmission mechanism
of global spillovers has been through international trade, but regions such as Latin America
and the Caribbean have also suffered from increased volatility of international capital flows
that have forced them to quickly adjust their macroeconomic policy in order to dampen the
effects on exchange rates, thereby weakening their domestic economies.
Growth decelerated by 1.4 percentage points in East Asia, largely due to a notable slowdown
in China, where growth slowed to 7.8 per cent – the slowest rate of growth since 1999.
In South Asia, where growth in India slowed sharply to 4.9 per cent, the lowest rate of growth
in the country in a decade, the regional GDP growth rate decelerated by 1.6 percentage points.
The regions of Latin America and the Caribbean and the Middle East also saw a substantial
Policy incoherence has led to heightened uncertainty, preventing stronger investment and faster job creation
Incoherence between monetary and fiscal policies adopted in different countries and a piecemeal
approach to financial sector and sovereign debt problems, in particular in the euro area,
have led to uncertainty weighing on the global outlook. Investment has not yet recovered to
pre-crisis levels in many countries. The indecision of policy makers in several countries has led
to uncertainty about future conditions and reinforced corporate tendencies to increase cash
holdings or pay dividends rather than expand capacity and hire new workers.
The continuing nature of the crisis has worsened labour market mismatches, intensifying downside labour market risks
The length and depth of the labour market crisis is worsening labour market mismatch, contributing
to extended spells of unemployment. As the crisis spreads through international
trade, occupations concentrated in exporting industries are particularly vulnerable and in
several countries their importance in total employment has declined by significant margins.
New jobs that become available often require competences that the unemployed do not possess.
Such skill and occupational mismatches will make the labour market react more slowly
to any acceleration in activity over the medium run, unless supporting policies to re-skill and
activate current jobseekers are enhanced.
Job creation rates are particularly low, as typically happens after a financial crisis
The origins of the crisis in the financial sector weigh on job creation. Following banking crises
such as the current one, more jobs are destroyed and fewer jobs created as pre-crisis misallocation
and over-investment require time to be corrected. In advanced economies job destruction
rates have increased again after a short-lived respite in 2010, indicating that further job
restructuring is likely before a stronger rebound can be expected in labour markets. Other
regions are also still experiencing higher-than-average job destruction rates.
The jobs crisis pushes more and more women and men out of the labour market
Labour force participation has fallen dramatically, in particular in advanced economies, masking
the true extent of the jobs crisis. The problem is particularly severe in the developed economies
and the EU region where the labour force participation rate declined by close to one percentage
point and is expected to recede further as long-term unemployment and a weak economic
outlook discourages people from staying in the labour market. As a consequence, the employment-
to-population ratio has fallen sharply – in some cases 4 percentage points or more – and
has not yet recovered even in cases where the unemployment rate has started to decline.
Youth remain particularly affected by the crisis
Young people remain particularly stricken by the crisis. Currently, some 73.8 million young
people are unemployed globally and the slowdown in economic activity is likely to push
another half million into unemployment by 2014. The youth unemployment rate – which
had already increased to 12.6 per cent in 2012 – is expected to increase to 12.9 per cent by
2017. The crisis has dramatically diminished the labour market prospects for young people, as
many experience long-term unemployment right from the start of their labour market entry,
a situation that was never observed during earlier cyclical downturns.
Currently, some 35 per cent of all young unemployed have been out of a job for six
months or longer in advanced economies, up from 28.5 per cent in 2007. As a consequence, an
increasing number of young people have become discouraged and have left the labour market.
Among European countries where this problem is particularly severe, some 12.7 per cent of all
young people are currently neither employed nor in education or training, a rate that is almost
two percentage points higher than prior to the crisis. Such long spells of unemployment and
discouragement early on in a person’s career also damage long-term prospects, as professional
and social skills erode and valuable on-the-job experience is not built up.
Weak labour markets holding back private consumption and economic growth
Income growth has come under pressure from rising unemployment, putting downward pressure
on real wages in many advanced economies, thereby lowering the support that private
consumption could give to economic activity. Sources of growth, therefore, need to be complemented
from other areas, in particular stronger growth in private investment but also government
consumption, at least in countries where fiscal space is available.
Despite a recovery over the medium run, unemployment remains elevated
Over the medium term, the global economy is expected by many commentators to recover,
but growth will not be strong enough to bring down unemployment quickly. Even with an
acceleration of growth, the global unemployment rate is expected to remain at 6 per cent up to
2017, not far from its peak level in 2009. At the same time, the global number of unemployed
is expected to rise further to some 210.6 million over the next five years.
Labour productivity growth has slowed sharply, preventing further gains in living standards
Another finding of this report is that labour productivity growth has slowed sharply in 2012.
After an initial rebound following the 2009 recession, weak investment and a highly uncertain
global outlook have put a brake on further increases in productivity. Particularly worrying
in this respect is the trend of a slowdown in labour productivity growth observed in certain
regions such as Latin America and the Caribbean, suggesting that the gains in the quality of
employment observed in these regions over recent years might be difficult to sustain.
Structural change has slowed down in emerging and developing economies, damaging engines of growth
Structural change necessary for emerging and developing economies to improve their standards
of living has also slowed during the crisis. In particular the tepid recovery in global
investment prevents faster reallocation of resources towards more productive uses in developing
economies. Prior to the crisis, many developing countries experienced rapid reallocation
of workers from low- to higher productivity activities across broad economic sectors.
Such structural change is an important driver of labour market improvements. In the past,
it has helped reduce vulnerable employment and working poverty. Compared to earlier years,
however, structural change has lost momentum during the crisis, largely because jobs are
no longer moving out of agriculture as fast as before and agricultural productivity growth
remains low. Forecasts indicate that Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa are more likely to return
to their pre-crisis path of structural change than are Latin America and the Caribbean and
Central and South-Eastern Europe. The Middle East and North African economies are
expected to remain among the least dynamic economies in terms of sectoral re-allocation
Further progress in reducing working poverty and vulnerable employment requires higher productivity growth and faster structural change
Despite the slowdown in structural change, the rate of working poverty has continued to
decrease, but at a slower pace than before the crisis. Currently some 397 million workers are
living in extreme poverty; an additional 472 million workers cannot address their basic needs
on a regular basis. As those countries with particularly high rates of working poverty continue
to experience faster growth than the world average, the rate of working poverty is expected
to continue to decline. However, as they are also growing faster demographically, the absolute
number of working poor is expected to increase in some regions unless faster economic
Vulnerable employment – covering own-account and contributing family workers – is
expected to decline but at a slower rate. Informal employment – one specific form of vulnerable
employment – has started to increase again, especially in certain transition economies in
Eastern Europe and Central Asia.
A new consumer class is emerging, but is not yet large enough to constitute an independent engine of growth
There are signs of an emerging consumer working class in developing countries, potentially
substituting for some of the consumption slowdown in advanced economies. On the back of
structural change and the movement of workers out of agriculture and into higher productivity
sectors, working poverty has declined and some countries have seen the emergence
of a working middle class, which has now surpassed 40 per cent of the developing world’s workforce. With the crisis, however, progress in poverty reduction has slowed and could
adversely affect growth of the emerging middle class. This will impact negatively on the capacity
for developing economies to play a stronger role in supporting global economic activity
and offer alternative engines of growth.
Policy makers need to take additional steps to recover from the second jobs dip
The worsening of macroeconomic and labour market conditions in many countries and the
risk of the jobs crisis becoming entrenched calls for additional policy action. Some promising
areas for action include:
Tackle uncertainty to increase investment and job creation. Particularly in developed
countries, policy makers need to address policy uncertainty. This includes providing more
coherent and predictable policy plans; measures to increase disposable incomes to foster
stronger consumption; prompt implementation of financial reforms to restore the banking
sector to its proper function of supporting investment and providing credit, in particular
to SMEs, the key engines of job creation. It also requires credible exit strategies for those
countries particularly affected by the debt crisis, for instance by rescheduling sovereign debt
and easing financial burdens of private households.
Coordinate stimulus for global demand and employment creation. Austerity measures
and uncoordinated attempts to promote competitiveness in several European countries
have increased the risk of a deflationary spiral of lower wages, weaker consumption
and faltering global demand. In light of the global jobs and consumption deficit, countries
should adapt the pace of their fiscal consolidation to the underlying strength of the
economy and recognise that short-term stimulus may be needed to grow out of debt burdens.
Global policy makers and coordination bodies such as the G20 and EU should make
stronger efforts to avoid beggar-thy-neighbour policies, which are occurring through wage
and social protection reductions in Europe as well as through trade and monetary measures
in other countries. Policy actions need to be better coordinated globally in order to
rebalance growth and foster multipolar growth engines. The growing purchasing power
of the emerging middle class in many developing countries could help bring about such a
Address labour market mismatch and promote structural change. The bulk of the
unempoyment crisis is cyclical. However, policy makers also need to tackle structural
problems that intensified with the crisis, such as skill and occupational mismatches. Weak
and unsteady recovery has worsened these problems in some countries and this is likely to
put a brake on future recovery in the labour market. Governments should step up their
efforts to support skill and retraining activities to address the gaps between demand and
supply of work skills and qualifications and to address long-term unemployment. Re-activation
and job counselling measures should be enhanced. The global crisis has lowered
the pace of structural change in many developing regions, calling for policies to improve
productivity and facilitate workers’ mobility across sectors. Where employment in agriculture
is particularly significant, governments need to pursue measures to accelerate
productivity growth in that sector and diversify the work and investment opportunities
in rural areas.
Increase efforts to promote youth employment – with a special focus on long-term
unemployment for youth. High and rising youth unemployment rates have spurred concerns
over a “lost generation” with long-term adverse consequences both for young people
themselves and the economy more broadly. To address these challenges, policy makers
should promote youth employment. The ILO comprehensive guidance on how to do this is contained in the Call for Action on the Youth Employment Crisis agreed by governments,
workers and employers at the June, 2012 International Labour Conference. Besides proemployment
macroeconomic policies and active labour market policies, three specific types
of interventions are considered particularly relevant: i) enhancing young people’s employability
through measures such as better links between the world of education and training
and the world of work, including apprenticeships; improving young people’s access to information
on career opportunities, support for job search, and youth employment guarantee
schemes; ii) encouraging youth entrepreneurship; and iii) promoting labour standards and
rights of young people by ensuring that they receive equal treatment and are afforded rights
at work, including their right to organise and bargain collectively, and ensuring their adequate
Source: International Labour Organization-ILO, GLOBAL EMPLOYMENT TRENDS 2013. Recovering from a second jobs dip. Executive summary; http://www.ilo.org
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